Bitcoin's weakening long-term trend may be transmitting a system-wide warning rather than a localized fault, according to Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone, who wrote on October 19 that stocks and industrial metals could eventually follow the cryptocurrency lower. His analysis, first reported by Yahoo! Finance, compares Bitcoin's rolling 50-week average with the pattern surrounding the 2018 and 2022 bear markets.
The core observation is a divergence: Bitcoin's trend has deteriorated while equities and economically sensitive commodities have not yet produced matching downtrends. McGlone frames the question in one line: is the first-born crypto issuing a warning or a feint?
What McGlone's 50-Week Model Shows
McGlone's chart compares 50-week moving averages across four instruments: Bitcoin, the S&P 500, the Bloomberg Commodity All Metals Total Return Subindex, and copper. The metric smooths short-term volatility and exposes longer-term direction. A moving average describes past prices; it does not establish what happens next. McGlone's comparison is a warning scenario, not a confirmed forecast.
His argument is that Bitcoin's climb above $100,000 in 2025 may have represented an overshoot, and that the asset is now rolling over after an extended plateau that resembles earlier bearish episodes. In 2018 and 2022, Bitcoin deteriorated first. The question is whether the current divergence means crypto is pricing in deteriorating financial conditions ahead of the rest of the market, or whether the pressure is contained within digital assets.
A sustained Bitcoin recovery would invalidate the bearish interpretation. Continued deterioration alongside weakening stocks and metals would strengthen it. Until one of those states materializes, the model outputs a warning flag, not a verdict.
Fed Tightening Defines the Macro Context
The monetary backdrop gives the signal a concrete transmission channel. The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point in September, to a range of 3.75% to 4%, and described economic activity as expanding at a solid pace while inflation remained elevated. The next policy meeting is scheduled for October 27-28, near the end of a month McGlone identified as potentially decisive.
Higher rates increase financing costs and make interest-bearing assets more competitive against speculative holdings. That is the mechanism McGlone worries about: persistent inflation keeps policy restrictive until financial markets weaken enough to cool spending and wealth creation.
Another immediate increase is not assured. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said on October 16 that he would not prejudge decisions at the October and December meetings, according to the Associated Press. The protocol is data-dependent; the market is watching the inputs.
Copper Tests the Thesis
Industrial metals provide a control case for the divergence argument. CME Group's October metals update reported that active copper futures ended September at $6.6215 per pound, down 1% for the month. Tight global supply and strong Chinese demand supported prices despite volatile trading.
That physical-market structure complicates any simple comparison with Bitcoin. Copper can remain supported by shortages even when investors turn cautious on financial assets. A divergence between crypto and equities also does not establish which market adjusts. McGlone's position, as